Hi, I'm

Isaac Vergara

Quantitative Finance & Data Science

MS Data Science candidate at Duke University with a concentration in Quantitative Finance. Building regime-adaptive trading systems, credit risk models, and production ML pipelines.

Isaac Vergara

Isaac Vergara

Durham, NC

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About Me

I'm a quantitative researcher and data scientist with a strong foundation in economics and statistics. Currently pursuing my MS in Data Science at Duke University, supported by both Duke Merit Scholarship and Mexico's CONACYT national scholarship.

My work sits at the intersection of quantitative finance, machine learning, and econometrics. I've built an epoch-based leverage pricing protocol for prediction markets achieving +24.2% out-of-sample returns across 884 weekly crypto markets, developed credit risk models analyzing 1.1M loans, and deployed production ML systems processing millions of records.

Beyond research, I lead the Quantitative Finance Club at Duke as Research Director, co-captain the AWS Cloud Club, and co-founded Fiscal Mind - an AI-powered tax advisory platform.

Beyond Work

Reading
Learning
Hobbies

Education

Duke University MS Data Science

Universidad Panamericana BS Economics

LSE Summer Program 2018

Recognition

Duke Merit Scholar

CONACYT Fellow

Azure Data Scientist Certified

Kaggle Competitions Expert

Leadership

Research Director, QF Club

Cloud Club Co-Captain

Technical Co-Founder

Experience

Technical Co-Founder

Fiscal Mind Jan 2025 - Present
  • Co-founded legal tech startup developing AI-powered tax advisory platform with multi-agent workflows
  • Architected ML pipeline using knowledge graphs for intelligent legal document processing
  • Built FastAPI backend with PostgreSQL, implementing caching that reduced API costs by 60%
FastAPI Multi-Agent AI Knowledge Graphs PostgreSQL

Semi Sr. OT Data Scientist

Enable Global Jul 2023 - Aug 2025
  • Led statistical analysis using ANOVA and anomaly detection for manufacturing defects, enabling $2M+ optimization decisions
  • Engineered data quality system with cosine similarity and clustering, processing 1M+ records
  • Presented quantitative findings to C-suite stakeholders across manufacturing and energy sectors
ANOVA Anomaly Detection Dash Pydantic

Data Scientist & Product Manager

Entropia AI Aug 2021 - Jul 2023
  • Implemented Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with automated price elasticity estimation
  • Built hierarchical SARIMAX forecasting improving prediction accuracy from 88% to 94%
  • Deployed production models using Prefect and AWS ElasticBeanstalk; led teams of 5+ analysts
SARIMAX AWS Prefect Econometrics

Consulting Intern

IQVIA 2020 - 2021
  • Provided strategic support for pharmaceutical product launches through market research
  • Designed and conducted structured interviews with healthcare professionals
  • Synthesized findings into executive presentations for product launch strategies
Market Research Survey Design Pharma

Research & Publications

Epoch-Based Leverage Pricing for Prediction Markets

Research Paper — Submitted 2026

Empirical test of epoch-based leverage pricing across 884 prediction markets with 146K observations. Achieved +24.2% out-of-sample returns with 1.49x fee coverage.

Monte Carlo Market Microstructure

Advanced Mortgage Credit Risk Modeling

Duke University - Fall 2025

Analyzed 1.1M Fannie Mae loans using survival analysis. Built hybrid Cox-XGBoost model achieving 0.998 C-index with 3.25x risk stratification.

Survival Analysis XGBoost Credit Risk

Analyzing NBA Timeouts

Medium - Editor's Selection

Published multilevel logistic regression analysis on timeout effectiveness. Selected for Medium's Boost platform with 10,000+ views.

Read on Medium
Mixed Effects Sports Analytics

Projects

View All Projects

Technical Skills

Programming

Python Expert
R Advanced
SQL Advanced
MATLAB Intermediate

Quantitative Finance

Portfolio Optimization Hidden Markov Models Copula Methods VaR/CVaR Options Pricing Pairs Trading Regime Detection Backtesting Stochastic Calculus Cointegration

Machine Learning

XGBoost Neural Networks Time Series Survival Analysis Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference Clustering Mixed Effects Models Spatial Econometrics

Libraries & Frameworks

scikit-learn pandas PyTorch TensorFlow statsmodels CVXPY hmmlearn QuantLib FastAPI Dash

Cloud & Infrastructure

AWS (EC2, RDS, S3, SageMaker) Azure ML Studio Docker Airflow PostgreSQL MongoDB Git

Trading Platforms

QuantConnect Bloomberg Terminal

Get in Touch

I'm currently open to opportunities in quantitative research, data science, and trading roles. Feel free to reach out if you'd like to discuss potential collaborations or opportunities.